Best Time to Book Holiday Flights: What Google's Data Shows

Anyone who delayed a flight purchase waiting for a "magic" weekday can stop checking the calendar. Google's latest breakdown of its booking data answers the best time to book holiday flights question: buying on the cheapest day of the week saves about 1.4% compared with the most expensive day, a gap much smaller than the savings associated with choosing different travel days or taking a connecting flight.

According to Google's 2026 analysis, departing on a Monday and returning on a Tuesday or Wednesday can save around 14% compared with weekend travel, while nonstop flights cost roughly 20% more than connecting itineraries on average.

Those differences matter more than waiting for a particular weekday to purchase tickets. For travelers who still haven't booked Thanksgiving or Christmas flights, the priority is comparing actual fares, checking flexible travel dates, and understanding which booking windows remain open.

When is the best time to book holiday flights? Why the weekday myth falls apart

Wednesday edged out Tuesday as the cheapest booking day in this year's figures, but the margin over Sunday sits at 1.4%, close to the 1.3% gap Google reported in both its 2024 and 2025 analyses.

Three straight years with differences of just 1.3% to 1.4% reinforce how little the day of purchase matters compared with other booking decisions.

The Points Guy reached a similar conclusion independently. Using Points Path search data covering more than 100,000 Thanksgiving-week economy fares, the outlet dismissed the idea that buying tickets at midnight on Tuesday produces consistently lower prices in its 2025 holiday travel outlook.

The two analyses use different datasets, but both challenge the idea that travelers should wait for a particular weekday to buy.

That has a practical consequence. If a flight looks good on a Friday afternoon, there's no reason to wait until Wednesday hoping for a discount the data suggests is unlikely to be meaningful.

The caveat is that these are aggregated averages across many routes, not a promise about any one flight. Individual routes can still behave differently from the broad trend, which is why route-specific pricing tools are more useful than a general booking-day rule.

Best time to book Thanksgiving and Christmas flights: the holiday flight booking window to watch

Domestic Thanksgiving fares have historically bottomed out 34 days before departure, with a broader low-price range of 21 to 57 days, according to Google's 2026 holiday travel data.

Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26 this year, just 31 days from Oct. 26. That puts travelers inside Google's historical low-price range and slightly past the average 34-day point.

For anyone with dates already locked in, the practical move is to search the actual route now and judge it against current fares rather than wait for another arbitrary booking date.

That 34-day figure has moved in Google's last three annual reports: 45 days out in 2024, 35 days in 2025, and 34 this year. For Thanksgiving specifically, the average lowest-price point has shifted closer to departure, but that's a pattern limited to this holiday, not a general rule.

Christmas tells a different story. Domestic Christmas fares hit their historical low 56 days before departure this year, with a range of 33 to 67 days. That's five days earlier than last year's average, pointing to late October through mid-November as the period when lower fares have typically appeared.

Christmas Day is 60 days from Oct. 26, placing travelers inside that historical range and just four days ahead of the average lowest-price point.

That doesn't mean waiting four days will produce a better fare. Google's own guidance is to book once plans are set rather than gamble on a price drop that may not arrive.

The three-year trend for Christmas supports that caution. The average lowest-price point has shifted between 58 days in 2024, 51 in 2025, and 56 this year, making these figures more useful as planning ranges than exact purchase dates.

International fares historically bottom out around 89 days before departure, but Google says the average price difference across the wider 50-to-133-day window isn't meaningful. Its guidance is to book as soon as travel plans are set rather than wait for a dip.

Unlike domestic holiday trips, international travel offers less reason to target a particular point within the historical booking window.

Google's 2026 analysis draws on five years of aggregated Google Flights data for departures from the US. Its 2025 report described a sample of round-trip fares across the top 4,000 US markets for trips lasting four to 16 days.

Google hasn't specified all the same methodological details in its 2026 announcement, so those earlier filters shouldn't automatically be assumed to apply this year.

The figures remain broad averages, useful for planning but not predictions for a specific airport pair, airline, cabin class, baggage requirement, or travel date.

The Points Guy's 2025 holiday fare snapshot adds historical context, although it isn't a forecast for 2026 prices. At the time, domestic Thanksgiving and Christmas fares were running 1% to 4% higher than the previous year, and overall domestic economy fares for Thanksgiving were up more than 3% to about $586.

More recent reporting suggests travelers shouldn't rely on those older prices as a benchmark for this year's trips. In its 2026 holiday airfare analysis, The Points Guy reported domestic averages of about $647 for Thanksgiving and $675 for Christmas, based on its latest fare checks.

Those figures aren't directly comparable with every measure in the 2025 report, but they reinforce the importance of checking current prices rather than assuming last year's averages still apply.

What actually lowers holiday airfare more than timing your purchase

Departure and return days carry far more weight than the weekday used to book. Departing on a Monday and returning on a Tuesday or Wednesday saves about 14% compared with weekend travel, and up to 20% for domestic trips compared with departing and returning on a Sunday, according to Google's 2026 data.

Choosing a connecting flight over a nonstop is another potential source of savings. Nonstop tickets were about 20% more expensive on average in this year's analysis, a premium that also appeared in Google's previous figures: 22% in 2025 and 25% in 2024.

The Points Guy's fare breakdown from its 2025 holiday travel outlook illustrates the Thanksgiving travel-day effect. Flying on Thanksgiving Day itself averaged about $470, compared with $537 for an early Monday departure, $517 for the day after Thanksgiving, $698 for the Saturday afterward, and $802 for the following Sunday.

In that same 2025 snapshot, Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve were the cheapest travel days around the holiday, averaging about $530 and $528, while the Saturday before Christmas and the Friday after averaged $851 and $815.

Those were 2025 prices, not estimates for the corresponding dates in 2026. They illustrate how sharply fares can differ depending on travel dates, even within the same holiday period.

Fuel costs, route competition, and demand can also influence prices, so the day of travel isn't the only factor. It is, however, one of the more practical variables travelers can control.

None of this helps travelers locked into specific dates by work schedules or family obligations. Anyone who has to fly out the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and return Sunday may have little flexibility, making the booking-window guidance more useful.

For travelers who can adjust their plans, shifting a departure or return by even one day is worth checking before assuming the fare is fixed.

Weighing a connection against the nonstop premium

A potential 20% saving on a connecting flight is meaningful, but it isn't the whole fare picture.

Before choosing the cheaper itinerary, compare total travel time with the nonstop option. A connection that turns a three-hour flight into a seven-hour journey isn't automatically the better deal, especially with children, pets, or a tight schedule.

Layover length matters for the same reason. A short connection carries more risk if the first leg runs late, while a long one adds hours that the fare savings may not justify.

Baggage costs are worth checking, too. Fees vary by airline and fare class, and travelers should confirm the total cost of the itinerary rather than assuming the lower base fare represents the full savings.

Fare rules add another consideration. The Points Guy notes that travelers may qualify for a credit if a fare drops after booking, but eligibility depends on the airline and ticket type. Basic economy tickets often have stricter restrictions.

Before choosing a connecting itinerary, check total travel time, layover length, baggage costs, and the airline's policies for changes or disruptions, not just the advertised price difference.

How to use Google Flights holiday booking data to track a specific trip

General averages are a starting point, not a verdict on any one trip.

For a specific route and date, Google Flights and AI Mode in Search can display a "cheapest time to book" insight based on historical pricing. That information is more relevant than broad averages because it relates to the actual route and travel dates being searched.

Here's how to put those insights to work:

• Enter the exact route and travel dates into Google Flights or AI Mode in Search rather than relying on a general city or date range.

• Check the "cheapest time to book" insight if one appears. If historical pricing suggests fares usually rise from this point, consider booking. If prices have typically fallen closer to departure, compare that pattern with the risk of waiting.

• Open the date grid to see how prices change with nearby travel dates, such as a Thursday versus Friday departure. The price graph can also show how fares vary across different dates, as described in Google's flight savings guide.

• Turn on price tracking so Google can notify you when fares change. Travelers who haven't settled on exact dates can also use the "Any dates" option to monitor eligible routes, as explained in Google's price-tracking guidance.

• Before counting on a travel credit if prices drop after booking, check the fare rules with the airline directly. Eligibility depends on the carrier's policies and the ticket purchased.

Google also introduced a price-guarantee pilot in 2023 for select itineraries booked through Google. Eligible flights carried a badge indicating Google's confidence that the fare wouldn't drop further, with refunds available under the program's terms if the price decreased.

That older announcement shouldn't be treated as proof that a price guarantee applies to current searches. Travelers should rely only on guarantees explicitly displayed for their itinerary and review the applicable conditions before booking.

These tools don't guarantee a lower fare. Google's descriptions of its booking insights, date grid, and tracking alerts explain how the features work, but historical pricing patterns can't predict every change in demand or availability.

Treat the information as a useful starting point, not a guaranteed forecast.

What to do before you book

The data doesn't support picking a specific weekday to buy tickets and expecting meaningful savings. It does support checking the actual trip against a few practical rules:

• Fixed Thanksgiving dates: Search and compare fares now. With Thanksgiving 31 days away, travelers are already inside Google's historical low-price booking window.

• Flexible dates: Test a Monday departure with a midweek return, along with other nearby date combinations, before assuming the price has to come down.

• Christmas travel: Compare fares now that the holiday is within Google's historical low-price range, rather than waiting for the exact 56-day average.

• International travel: Book once plans are firm. Google's data shows little meaningful price difference across the broader historical low-price window.

• Any connection: Check total travel time, layover length, baggage costs, and fare-change rules before choosing it over a nonstop.

• After booking: Keep tracking prices, but expect a travel credit only if the airline's fare rules allow it.

Skip the weekday superstition. Spend that time confirming that the travel dates, connection choices, and fare rules make sense before purchasing tickets.